New Insights on Democratic Backsliding: Evidence from Cambodian NGOs, a Legal Change in Tanzania and 60 Million News Stories

Ciclo de Seminarios Permanentes

Presentador

Erik Wibbels (Duke University)

Fecha y hora

Martes 2 de noviembre de 11:45 a 13:00 hs

Transmisión por Zoom 

Por favor ingresen con su nombre completo y sus micrófonos apagados.

A los inscriptos se les enviará un mail con el link de Zoom unos minutos antes del comienzo del Seminario. 

New Insights on Democratic Backsliding: Evidence from Cambodian NGOs, a Legal Change in Tanzania and 60 Million News Stories

Abstract:

Democratic backsliding is happening fast, while theory is structural and the standard data sources are slow. I introduce a new approach that applies the latest natural language processing models to extract daily and monthly event data bearing on 39 dimensions of political regimes. This high frequency data allows us to forecast movements in political regimes with considerable accuracy. After describing cross-country results, I share two applications that aim to pin down causal effects. In the first, we use a legal crackdown on the formal press in Tanzania to examine its impact on how different news sources respond. In the second, we deploy a conjoint experiment to examine how NGOs respond to variation in the local level of repression.